Cognitive Biases: Quick Reference
A brief intro to each bias in your collection.
Existential & Civilization
Black Swan
What: Unpredictable events with massive impact that seem obvious in hindsight.
Why it matters: We plan for the predictable and get blindsided by the improbable. History is written by black swans, not gradual trends.
Great Filter
What: The reason we see no alien civilizations — something wipes out intelligent life before it spreads.
Why it matters: Are we past the filter, or is it ahead? Nuclear war? AI? Climate? The silence of the universe is a warning.
Information Hazard
What: Some knowledge is dangerous to know or spread.
Why it matters: How to build a virus, how to hack critical infrastructure, how to manipulate masses. Some ideas are weapons.
Thucydides Trap
What: Rising powers threaten ruling powers, almost inevitably leading to conflict.
Why it matters: Historical pattern: 12 of 16 cases ended in war. Applies to nations, companies, individuals.
The Well
What: Perspective from the bottom — those at the bottom of hierarchies see reality more clearly.
Why it matters: Power blinds. The powerless notice what the powerful ignore. Truth often bubbles up from below.
Wireheading
What: Direct stimulation of pleasure centers, bypassing natural rewards.
Why it matters: Drugs, social media, gambling — all superstimuli hijacking ancient reward circuits. Pleasure without purpose is a trap.
Cognitive Biases
Affect Heuristic
What: Gut feelings guide decisions more than analysis.
Why it matters: “I just don’t like it” overrides data. Good for snap judgments, terrible for complex decisions.
Anchoring Bias
What: First number heard warps all subsequent estimates.
Why it matters: List price, initial offer, first impression. The anchor sets the negotiation, often arbitrarily.
Availability Heuristic
What: Recent or vivid events seem more likely/common.
Why it matters: Plane crashes feel common (news coverage) but driving is deadlier. What comes to mind ≠ what’s true.
Base Rate Fallacy
What: Ignoring background statistics in favor of specific details.
Why it matters: Even with a “95% accurate” test, if the condition is rare, most positives are false positives.
Confirmation Bias
What: Seeking, interpreting, and remembering information that confirms existing beliefs.
Why it matters: We don’t search for truth; we search for validation. Social media echo chambers amplify this.
Conjunction Fallacy
What: Adding details makes a story seem more likely, even though it’s mathematically less probable.
Why it matters: “Linda is a bank teller AND a feminist” seems more likely than “Linda is a bank teller” — but can’t be.
Curse of Knowledge
What: Once you know something, it’s hard to imagine not knowing it.
Why it matters: Experts can’t teach beginners. You forget what it’s like to be confused. Communication fails.
Fundamental Attribution Error
What: Blaming character for others’ failures, situational factors for our own.
Why it matters: “They’re late because they’re lazy. I’m late because traffic was bad.” Double standard in judgment.
Gell-Mann Amnesia
What: Expert in one field, gullible in others — forgetting media is often wrong.
Why it matters: You spot errors in your field, then believe the next article on a topic you don’t know. The amnesia resets.
Halo Effect
What: One good trait colors perception of all other traits.
Why it matters: Attractive people seem smarter. CEOs with charisma seem competent. One dimension bleeds into all.
Illusion of Control
What: Believing we influence random or uncontrollable outcomes.
Why it matters: Gambling rituals, “my numbers” in lotteries, superstitions. We hate admitting we’re not in control.
Illusion of Validity
What: Confidence in judgments exceeds their actual accuracy.
Why it matters: Experts are often wrong but never uncertain. More information ≠ better predictions, just more confidence.
Naive Realism
What: Believing we see reality objectively, others are biased or irrational.
Why it matters: “I’m rational, you’re biased.” Everyone thinks this. The bias is invisible to the bearer.
Normal Accidents
What: Complex systems fail inevitably — accidents are normal, not exceptional.
Why it matters: Adding safety features can increase complexity, causing new failures. Some systems are too complex to be safe.
Optimism Bias
What: Believing we’re less likely to experience negative events than others.
Why it matters: “It won’t happen to me.” Smokers, drivers, entrepreneurs all overestimate their odds. Necessary for action, costly when wrong.
Overconfidence Effect
What: We know less than we think we do.
Why it matters: Experts are the worst — narrow expertise breeds broad overconfidence. Dunning-Kruger’s cousin.
Planning Fallacy
What: Underestimating time, cost, and risk of future projects.
Why it matters: Projects go over budget and deadline predictably. We plan for best case, reality delivers average case.
Reflexivity
What: Observation changes the observed; beliefs shape reality which shapes beliefs.
Why it matters: Markets, societies, relationships — thinking makes it so. Feedback loops between perception and reality.
Status Quo Bias
What: Preferring things stay the same, even when change is beneficial.
Why it matters: Default options dominate. People stick with bad situations just because they’re familiar. Loss aversion’s sibling.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
What: Continuing investments due to past irrecoverable costs.
Why it matters: “I’ve come this far…” Movies, relationships, projects — past costs are gone, but we let them dictate future decisions.
Survivorship Bias
What: Only seeing the winners, ignoring the losers who tried the same thing.
Why it matters: We study successful companies, not failed ones. We see the hits, not the misses. The graveyard is invisible.
Systems & Dynamics
Cybernetics
What: Control and communication in systems — feedback loops, regulation, information flow.
Why it matters: Understanding how systems self-regulate (or don’t). From thermostats to economies to organisms.
Demographic Transition
What: Pattern of population change as societies develop.
Why it matters: High birth/death → low birth/death. Explains aging populations, labor shortages, economic shifts.
Lindy Effect
What: Older things tend to live longer; future life expectancy proportional to past age.
Why it matters: Books that survive 100 years will survive 100 more. Technologies that last, last. Time is the best filter.
Lock-in Effect
What: Path dependence — early choices constrain future options.
Why it matters: QWERTY keyboard, software ecosystems, infrastructure. Not the best wins — the first to get entrenched wins.
Loss Aversion
What: Losses hurt more than equivalent gains feel good.
Why it matters: Need 100 loss. Explains risk aversion, holding losing stocks, status quo bias.
Path Dependence
What: History matters — past decisions shape present options.
Why it matters: Small early events cascade into major outcomes. The present is constrained by arbitrary past choices.
Technical Debt
What: Shortcuts now cost more later.
Why it matters: Quick fixes accumulate interest. Eventually you must pay — with interest — or the system collapses.
Value Drift
What: Changing what we value over time, often without noticing.
Why it matters: Your future self may not want what you want now. Locking in decisions for “future you” is risky.
How to Use This
- Quick lookup: Scan for the bias you need
- Pattern matching: When you spot one in the wild, note it
- Self-check: Before big decisions, scan for relevant biases
- Teaching: Share specific biases, not “don’t be biased”
Part of the Cognitive Bias Reference