Lindy Effect
Type: Systems & Dynamics
Local HTML: lindy_effect.html
Definition
The older something is, the longer it’s likely to survive. Future life expectancy is proportional to past age.
Named for Lindy’s Deli in NYC, where comedians observed: The longer a show lasted, the longer it would continue.
Why It Matters
Technology: Email (50+ years) will outlast most apps. Books (500+ years) will outlast e-readers. Ideas: Religions that survived millennia will likely survive more. New ideologies? Uncertain. Careers: Learn skills that have lasted decades, not months. Investing: Companies that survived crises are more likely to survive future ones.
The Logic
Time is the best filter. Every period survived is evidence of resilience.
| Age | Expected Future |
|---|---|
| 1 year | ~1 year |
| 10 years | ~10 years |
| 100 years | ~100 years |
| 1000 years | ~1000 years |
Not exact, but directional: Old things are robust.
Lindy vs Hype
| Lindy | Non-Lindy |
|---|---|
| Books | Social media platforms |
| Walking | Fitness fads |
| Stoicism | Self-help trends |
| Knives | Kitchen gadgets |
| Shakespeare | Viral content |
Related Biases
- Survivorship Bias — We see the old things that survived, not the new ones that failed
- Recency Bias — We overweight new things
- Hype Cycle — New tech gets overestimated
Audio
Podcast episode: Lindy Effect
Part of the Cognitive Bias Reference