Gambler’s Fallacy

Type: Informal — Statistical Also Known As: Monte Carlo fallacy, maturity of chances

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Definition

Believing past random events affect future probabilities in independent events.

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Form

[Standard logical form to be added]

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Examples

Example 1

The roulette wheel hit red 5 times. Black is due!

Example 2

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Example 3

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Example 4

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Why It Persuades

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How to Counter

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Related Concepts

• Related Fallacy
• Related Bias

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References

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Part of the Convergence Protocol — Clear thinking for complex times.