Dunning-Kruger Effect

Type: Cognitive Bias
Local HTML: dunning-kruger.html (if exists)

---

Definition

Incompetent people overestimate their ability; competent people underestimate theirs. The less you know, the more confident you are.

Kruger & Dunning (1999): Tested humor, grammar, logic. Bottom quartile performers rated themselves above average. Top quartile rated themselves average.

---

The Curve

Confidence
    │    ╭────── Peak of "Mount Stupid"
    │   ╱
    │  ╱
    │ ╱
    │╱_________ Valley of Despair
    │            ╲
    │             ╲
    │              ╲________ Slope of Enlightenment
    └─────────────────────────────
      Low    Medium    High
           Knowledge

1. Mount Stupid — Little knowledge, high confidence
2. Valley of Despair — Realizing how much you don’t know
3. Slope of Enlightenment — Competence with appropriate humility

---

Why It Matters

Workplace: Incompetent employees demand promotions. Competent ones doubt themselves. Politics: Confident candidates win; competent but uncertain ones lose. Internet: Everyone’s an expert. Loud ≠ right. Learning: You don’t know what you don’t know.

---

The Paradox

To recognize incompetence requires competence. The incompetent lack the metacognitive ability to see their incompetence.

---

Fighting It (If You’re on Mount Stupid)

1. Assume ignorance — You probably know less than you think
2. Seek feedback — Listen to criticism
3. Study the field — Real expertise takes time
4. Stay humble — Confidence without competence is dangerous

---

Fighting It (If You’re in the Valley)

1. You’re probably competent — Impostor syndrome is real
2. Compare to beginners — See how far you’ve come
3. Trust evidence — Your results speak

---

Related Biases

• Overconfidence Effect — Broader than Dunning-Kruger
• Illusion of Competence — Thinking you learned when you didn’t
• Impostor Syndrome — Competent people feeling fraudulent

---

Audio

Podcast episode: Dunning-Kruger Effect

---

Part of the Cognitive Bias Reference